Nature Climatology Supplement, 1978, M K Miles

The Nature Climatology Supplement in 1978 has an interesting article by M K Miles (Predicting temperature trend in the Northern Hemisphere to the year 2000, Nature Vol 276, p356, 23/Nov/1978). It discusses the predictions of Lamb, Bryson, Budyko and others and trys to work out how people using the same data can make such varying predictions. Interestingly, J M Mitchell is amongst those who (then) felt that no reliable prediction to 2000 could be made.

Kukla, GJ; Angell,JK; Dronia,H; Hoshiai,M; Namias,J; Rodewald,M; Yamamoto;R and Iwashima,T "New data on climatic trends" (Nature, v270, p573-580, 1977) has been quoted in support of a "Greenhouse sceptic" position. But, it doesn't really support that position. Its about climate trends from 1951-1975, from a variety of indices (its interesting to see how climate monitoring has vastly improved since then). Its conclusions (it has many) are, in order:

  1. Year to year variability constitutes most of the variation in the record, and is in phase over most of the NH
  2. Variability is several times larger than any trends present
  3. Middle and low NH shows progressive oscillatory cooling. High latitutes cooled until about 1965 and then show warming.
  4. And so on, unto the ninth conclusion.

I can see not the least hint anywhere in the paper that any prediction is attempted: the only reference to this is when it says "Possible causes of the trends have been discussed elsewhere" and lists 6 references. People nowadays would de-emphasise the cooling trends bit, but I think it would probably still be considered reasonable.