B. J. Mason, QJRMS, 1976, p 473 (Symons Memorial Lecture)

This reference was cited by N. Calder.

The introduction to this paper states: "Unfortunately our understanding of the mechanisms ans causes of climatic trends and fluctuations is inadequate to allow their prediction" which makes it unlikely the paper contains any useful predictions...

[As an aside, a little later (p 479), when discussing solar-weather variations, he warns of the "dangers of drawing uncritical, facile conclusions from apparent correlations".]

On page 483, he says "At present we are in a warm interglacial period, the duration of these in the past have averaged about 50 kyr. It is probable that the present very warm interval, which has already lasted for about 10 kyr, will eventually give way to a period of colder climate. Statistically the chances that such a transition will begin in the next 100 years mayy be placed at about 1 in 100 but the full drop of 10 oC or so would probably be spread over several kyr. There is a rather higher probability that a cooling may set in but not be carried through to the full glacial conditions. The chances of a prolonged cold, but far from glacial, spell within the next century, with average temperatures lower by about 1 oC, such as occurred between 1500 and 1850, must be put quite high, about 1 in 5. However, there is no physical basis for predicting either the timing or magnitude of such changes because we do not yet understand the underlying causes. Likewise there is no real basis for the alarmist predictions of an imminent ice age which have largely been based on extrapolation of the 30-year trend of falling temperatures between 1940 and 1965. Apart from the strong dubiety of making a forecast from such a highly fluctuating record by extrapolation of such a short period trend, there is now evidence that the trend has been arrested."