Gribbin: Climatic Change, 1978

Citation by by N. Calder quotes by WMC.

From p142: "Although the [Milankovich] model tells us nothing about cycles of less than 20 kyr... The details differ, emphasising the unfinished state of the Milankovich model (or family of models) but the overall conclusion is the same... We have already passed the peak of the present interglacial, according to all these predictions, and we can expect the beginning of a return to full ice age conditions within about 1000 yr... This prediction takes no account, of course, of the implications of Man's interference with the environment, which could have a pronounced short-term effect. In addition, the probability of the trigger for the next ice age occurring in the next 100 yr must be very small and there is no reason to fear the imminent onset of a ful ice age in the immediate future (by human time scales)."